Predicting Complex Systems
Philip Tetlock
Tetlock is a social scientist who takes his research methods seriously and build robust studies. Much of his research focuses on predicting the future in politics and international relations.
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
This book suggests a number of ways to make predictions more accurate towards the end. The key ideas are to:
- Tend to want absolute values
- The more granular the better
- The more perspectives, the better
- Reduce embarrassment
- Use a percentage value
- Pick a good starting (anchor) value and then work from there
- Aggregation of slightly better than random guesses can get quite close
- Updating frequently is useful
- Bait and switch is a big problem - i.e., substituting hard questions for easy ones
- Predict things that are hard enough but still possible, e.g., next presidential election
Management
Military
A highly commendable book that presents a compelling argument against the notion of a siloed, bureaucratic strict hierarchy within organizations. Instead, it advocates for a decentralized management structure, characterized by teams that trust one another and possess knowledge about each other’s activities (referred to as “culture”). Furthermore, it emphasizes the importance of creating an environment conducive to fostering such a culture, promoting openness and collaboration. Managers are encouraged to adopt an “eyes on, hands-off” approach, providing guidance while allowing autonomy. Additionally, they are urged to lead by example, matching their words with actions.
Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World
When General Stanley McChrystal took command of the Joint Special Operations Task Force in Iraq in 2003, he quickly realized that conventional military tactics were failing. The allied forces had a huge advantage in numbers, equipment and training - but none of the enemy's speed and flexibility. McChrystal and his colleagues discarded a century of conventional wisdom to create a 'team of teams' that combined extremely transparent communication with decentralized decision-making authority. Faster, flatter and more flexible, the task force beat back al-Qaeda.
Field Marshal Lord Alanbrooke kept a diary throughout the entirety of the Second World War, outlining how he managed the entire British war effort. Although his diary does not directly focus on complex systems, I would argue that the Second World War itself represents one of the most intricate and complex systems imaginable.
War diaries
Space
The Development of Ballistic Missiles in the United States Air Force 1945-1960
Following World War II, the onset of nuclear weapons, long-range jet bombers, and ballistic missiles radically changed American foreign policy and military strategy. The U.S. Air Force, led by men of far-sighted vision and uncommon dedication, accepted the challenge of organizing and leading a massive research and development effort to build ballistic missiles. In the quarter of a century since, these weapons have constituted one of the three legs of the strategic triad -- the basis of Americas strategy of deterring nuclear war -- yet they have received less attention from the public and within the Air Force than the more glamorous manned bombers of the Strategic Air Command or the missile-launching submarines of the U.S. Navy. This volume attempts to correct the imbalance by telling the story of the development of Air Force ballistic missiles. It concentrates on the first generation of ballistic missiles the intercontinental Atlas and Titan, and the intermediate-range Thor. Although the effort to develop rockets has a longer history than commonly assumed, the modern history spans the relatively short era from 1945 to 1960. During this brief interval, missiles advanced from drawing board to alert status, where the next generation now remains poised to deter war. The author describes the difficulties involved in the technological competition with the Soviets to be first to develop and deploy a ballistic missile force. With innovative leadership, the Air Force succeeded also in overcoming conflict with the Army and Navy, budgetary constraints, administrative complications, and, of course, formidable engineering problems.
Medicine
The Checklist Manifesto: How to Get Things Right
